Co-Chairman of Universal Defence and Security Solutions General Sir Richard Barrons KCB, CBE considers how nations and militaries should configure in a more dangerous and challenging world

IT IS NOW COMMON to describe the world as unstable, competitive and confrontational. The shift from a largely stable, unipolar world to the sandpit of an active great power competition is well underway, prosecuted across the full spectrum of national power. Against this backdrop, instability and insecurity in the Middle East will endure, the political, economic, demographic and humanitarian challenges in Africa demand international attention, and violent religious extremism remains a constant. Technology and the digital age further disrupt society, transforming how individuals, economies, civil societies, and states exist and operate. Compounding all of these factors is the growing inability of the planet to absorb the demands made of it, with population growth, urbanisation, water scarcity, resource shortfalls, and the accelerating effects of climate change bringing still more instability and conflict. In short, the world is more dangerous and more challenging, with the prevalence and risk of damaging confrontation and conflict on the rise.

The resulting conundrum for nation states and their militaries is ‘so what?’ How should national and military power be prioritised to ensure national safety and security in this more hazardous context? In response, those who are more forward-thinking must consider dramatic shifts in approach, priority and investment.

NATIONS MUST CONFIGURE THEIR NATIONAL POWER FOR TOMORROW, RATHER THAN INCREMENTALLY IMPROVE THE PAST…

Militaries inevitably tend to repeat the judgements of the past; hard-pressed, well-intentioned bureaucracies usually stay with traditional thinking and vested interest, and incrementally improve and replace like with like, rather than introduce often radical but necessary change.
However, in today’s highly fluid and increasingly threatening context, militaries require capability tailored for tomorrow, led by a clear idea of how to fight in this new operating environment. For the more ambitious, this redefinition of military power is likely to link together AI, cloud security, autonomy and robotics to deliver a highly agile manned and unmanned mix of capabilities. Regardless, this contemporary intellectual headmark – or in military jargon, doctrine – must be intrinsically linked to the nations’ thinking on how to deter, and how it intends to use all the levers of national power, including the military.

THERE NEEDS TO BE A RELENTLESS FOCUS ON RESILIENCE…        

The real or potential reach of prospective opponents is far greater than previously, leading to unprecedented vulnerability at home as well as in any deployed warzone. National and military infrastructure and data, critical to the operation of governments and militaries, is increasingly at risk from a myriad of physical and virtual threats, with long-range precision missiles and drones, cyber capabilities, and aggressive disinformation all contributing to this lack of strategic depth. This broad threat demands a re-evaluation of those areas of national capability, which are critical to national well-being and survival. This includes their (usually out-sourced and internet-dependent) national and military logistic and digital backbone, which is essential for the efficient and effective operation of society and military capability. The solution is a transformation in the approach to national physical, virtual and cognitive resilience, including an enhanced focus on national defence (physical defence, data sovereignty and assured access to critical technology and resources), and then a well-practised ability to ‘fight through’ any attack.

INFORMATION COMPETENCY IS FUNDAMENTAL TO NATIONAL SUCCESS OR FAILURE…

Traditionally, while most governments would recognise the need to understand the opportunities and limitations of all potential tools of national power, military, cyber and particularly digital power are often the most misunderstood. Put bluntly, decision-makers and war-fighters need to be much better at understanding the information environment, which brings a commensurate and pressing focus on information education and awareness.

This refocussing of professional competency is essential to understand and adapt to the digital revolution in state and military affairs. This revolution can include human-machine teaming, artificial intelligence, quantum, neural networks, synthetic environments, advances on battery technology, 3D printing, or the increasing importance of rare materials fundamental to the information age. Importantly, this explosion of opportunity and prospective threat will, and should change irrevocably the nature of intelligence, command and control, training and mission rehearsal and logistics.

ACQUISITION REFORM IS ESSENTIAL TO DELIVER INFORMATION CAPABILITY…

Most national procurement systems are not agile enough to acquire capability at a pace and risk appetite that matches the desired equipment or capability, nor reap the benefits of private sector technology development. Most nations utilise the same fundamental acquisition system, whether procuring a ship, tank or aircraft, or a more rapidly changing information capability. Acquisition reform is therefore the essential foundation to delivering the necessary shift in national capability that is required to remain competitive. This reform should deliver an acquisition system that is adaptable to match the desired capability, and hence maximising the opportunity to benefit from advances in the private sector.

THE TRUST OF THE PUBLIC IS DIFFICULT TO GAIN AND EASY TO LOSE … ESPECIALLY IN THE DIGITAL AGE…

It is now commonplace to label uncomfortable truths as fake news, and to promote dishonest and duplicitous agendas through propaganda and deception. This will only exacerbate and accelerate this general sense of uncertainty in what and who to trust. This has already placed an even higher premium on public trust in those institutions, such as governments and militaries, that can only operate with public support. Therefore, a comprehensive understanding of the information environment, and the relationship between enduring trust and public opinion is essential for nation states and militaries, as well as evident and proactive transparency. Indeed, this need to be transparent and to convince an at times sceptical public demands a re-evaluation of what previously classified information and activity can and should be placed in the public domain.

STRATEGIC OPPONENTS AND PROBLEMS REQUIRE A STRATEGIC RESPONSE AND THE COURAGE TO ACT…

It is clear that some nations are increasingly strategic in their intent and then their application of power. They are strategically patient, are making long-term investments in capability and activity, and use the full range of their national capability, sometimes legal, sometimes illegal, for competition, confrontation and perhaps conflict.

If these opponents are not met with an equal and enduring strategic approach, they will triumph. Therefore, the challenge for the nations and militaries who care about the safety and security of their citizens is to be truly strategic in thought and deed, and to have the persistent will to act. Anything less is not acceptable.

Universal Defence and Security Solutions Ltd (UDSS) was founded by General Sir Richard Barrons and Peter Hewitt to provide policy, strategy and operational solutions for governments, businesses and commercial organisations, on a global basis. UDSS has the largest and broadest membership of former British Armed Forces personnel, regular and reserve from SNCO to 4 Star, as well as former MoD Civil Servants. This enables UDSS to provide the very best expertise in the major defence and security challenges of today, including: leading in contemporary military ‘hard power’ capability; ‘hybrid’ or ‘political’ confrontation; information operations and cyber warfare; peace support; wider security; constabulary; humanitarian assistance and disaster relief. www.universal-defence.com